Eventi | Seminari e Convegni

Home Eventi | Seminari e Convegni

Evolutionary optimized Padé approximation scheme for analysis of forecasting models with crowding effect: some results on Covid-19 and further perspectives

prof. Massimiliano Ferrara, Università Mediterranea di Reggio Calabria, ICRIOS - Bocconi University

This seminar presents a novel evolutionary computation-based Padé approximation (EPA) scheme for constructing a closed-form approximate solution of a nonlinear dynamical model of Covid-19 disease with a crowding effect that is a growing trend in epidemiological modeling. In the proposed framework of the EPA scheme, the crowding effect-driven system is transformed to an equivalent nonlinear global optimization problem by assimilating Padé rational functions. The initial conditions, boundedness, and positivity of the solution are dealt with as problem constraints. Keeping in view the complexity of formulated optimization problems, a hybrid of differential evolution (DE) and a convergent variant of the Nelder-Mead Simplex algorithm is also proposed to obtain a reliable, optimal solution. The comparison of the EPA scheme results reveals that optimization results of all formulated optimization problems for the Covid-19 model with crowding effect are better than those of several modern metaheuristics. EPA-based solutions of the Covid-19 model with crowding effect are in good agreement with those of a well-practiced nonstandard finite difference (NSFD) scheme. The proposed EPA scheme is less sensitive to step lengths and converges to true equilibrium points unconditionally.

New results on Differential Game

prof. Bruno Antonio Pansera, Università Mediterranea di Reggio Calabria

An evasion differential game of one evader and many pursuers is studied. The dynamics of state variables 𝑥1,…,𝑥𝑚x1,…,xm are described by linear differential equations. The control functions of players are subjected to integral constraints. If 𝑥𝑖(𝑡)≠0xi(t)≠0 for all 𝑖∈{1,…,𝑚}i∈{1,…,m} and 𝑡≥0t≥0, then we say that evasion is possible. It is assumed that the total energy of pursuers doesn’t exceed the energy of evaders. We construct an evasion strategy and prove that for any positive integer m evasion is possible.